Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets betting tips and predictions for Wednesday’s NBA Finals game on ABC. With the series tied at 1-1, the Heat and Nuggets move to South Beach for Games 3 and 4. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
We’re just 2 games into the NBA Finals and already we had a major upset in Game 2 as the Heat were able to tie things up with a big win at Ball Arena. Despite being down by as many as 15 points in the 2nd quarter, Jimmy Butler and co. responded well and now we have a best of 5 on our hands.
The key to the victory was Miami’s three-point shooting as they lit up the Nuggets for 17 made threes on 35 attempts. In their last 5 wins the Heat are shooting 48% from downtown, while in their last 4 losses that’s down to 35%. So the formula for success seems pretty obvious for head coach Erik Spoelstra, but the question is can the Heat maintain this level of efficiency from deep?
Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets fell into the Heat’s trap in Game 2 as the big man exploded for 41 points, but had only 4 assists all game. That’s a stark contrast compared to the series opener when he had 10 of them in the first half and 14 for the game. The 2-time MVP has had 4 career postseason games with 40 or more points and he is yet to win a game when he scores that much.
Jamal Murray also had a modest 18 points by his standards, as a team the Nuggets shot only 11-for-28 from three in the loss. It was the first time this postseason we saw Denver lose at home, but despite that they are 2.5 point favorites to win Game 3 on the road. They’ve covered the spread in 6 of their last 7 visits to South Beach, plus they’re an impressive 9-2 SU in 11 games vs Southeast Division opponents.
Game 3 has the potential to be a pivotal one as both teams are looking to grab the series lead. With the win in Game 2 and playing at home, I think the momentum is on Miami’s side here. In their last 9 home games they are 7-2 ATS, so I think Jimmy Butler and co. can come out on top here. Back the home team to cover.
Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets Predictions & Odds
As far as scoring goes, Game 2 finished exactly like I expected Game 1 to finish. The two teams combined for 219 points, just enough to land us on the over. It was the 6th time in 7 games we had that bet land in meetings between these teams and with the projected total going further down to just 214.5 points for Game 3, I feel like sticking with the over is a good idea here.
Denver has had 6 of their last 9 road games cash on that bet, for the season they are 25-23 on the O/U away from home and they have the best offensive rating in road games this postseason at 120.3 points per 100 possessions. The last 10 meetings between these teams are averaging 216.7 points per game and the total has gone over in 7 of those. I say we stick with the points for Game 3 and see how things go from there. Back the over.