Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks betting tips and predictions for Tuesday’s NBA play-in game on TNT. The number 7 seed in the Eastern Conference is on the line as the Heat and Hawks square off in the first play-in game. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
The Heat are huge favorites to overcome the Hawks and claim the 7th seed which would mean a first round series against the Boston Celtics. That sounds a lot more enticing than going up against the frontrunner Giannis Antetokounmpo and his Milwaukee Bucks, so Miami will have to focus here and get the job done.
They’ve beaten Atlanta 3 times in the 4 meetings during the regular season and are currently on a run of 7 straight wins at home against them. That would explain why they are 5-point favorites entering Tuesday’s games, Jimmy Butler in particular has played really well against this team averaging 25 points per game to go along with 8 rebounds and 6.3 assists on 63.2% shooting. The Heat have lost only once in their last 5 games overall.
The good news for Atlanta here is that even if they lose they can still get the 8th seed if they beat the winner of the 9th vs 10th match-up. Trae Young has largely been disappointing in meetings with the Heat and when he’s not playing well the Hawks struggle a lot. He scores almost 3 points less in road games than home games this season, so he’ll have to elevate his game in order for Atlanta to stand a chance.
Miami has limited Young to an average of just 19.8 points per game against them this year on just 35.6% shooting from the field and a measly 20% from three-point land. With just 1 win in the last 6 meetings with Miami, Atlanta fans aren’t hoping for much out of this game.
This game should be all Miami. They’ve been one of the more disappointing teams against the spread at home during the regular season, but they still have a respectable 27-14 SU record at Kaseya Center. Look for them to assert their dominance in this game.
Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks Predictions & Odds
Both the Heat and the Hawks have cashed on the over in their last 5 games in a row, but I have a feeling those runs are about to end here. As the stakes go higher, the games will slow down quite a lot in these play-in games, especially the elimination ones as teams won’t want to risk their season by letting the games get out of hand. Although they’re 23-18 on the O/U in home games this season, the Heat are well known for their lock down defense, especially on Trae Young who they’ve been able to shut down on a consistent basis.
I expect their focus to be on him here as well, as a result of that approach the under has cashed 8 times in the last 10 meetings between these two teams. Another stat working in the favor of those backing the under is Atlanta’s three-point production this season. They attempt only the 3rd lowest amount of threes per game at 30.5, against a Miami defense which is tough to score on inside the paint they could really struggle here. I’m backing the under with confidence.