Dallas Mavericks vs Miami Heat betting tips and predictions for Friday’s NBA game on ESPN. In hopes of ending a 3-game losing streak, the Mavericks host the Heat who have won 4 of their last 5 games. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
It’s been a rough stretch for these Mavericks lately and it was capped off by another home loss to the Atlanta Hawks 130-122 on Wednesday. Defensively they’ve now allowed 130+ points in 3 straight games, if that’s not bad enough to sound the alarms I don’t know what is. This team is clearly going nowhere with the way it’s currently constructed, so I believe the Mavs will be one of the more active teams on the upcoming trade deadline day.
Luka Doncic got his 30 vs Atlanta, while Wood and Dinwiddie each dropped 22 and 20, but as a united they allowed Atlanta to shoot 57% from the field. It doesn’t get any easier tonight as they face a Heat squad that’s beaten them 7 times in the last 10 meetings. Luka and co. have just 2 wins in their last 14 games vs Eastern Conference opponents. Not only that, Wood has been ruled out for several weeks with a thumb injury.
Miami has been on the uprise for a while now winning 4 of their last 5 games, while also going 8-3 SU in their last 11 games on the road. Dallas has been a particularly fruitful opponent, they’ve beaten the Mavs 15 times in the last 20 games, while covering the spread in 9 of the last 11 meetings in Dallas. The Heat don’t really all that much on the three-point line, even though they have lethal shooters on the team like Tyler Herro.
Instead, players like Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo like to push the ball on the inside, that should be visible in tonight’s game against a shorthanded Mavs team that’s lacking any real size on the inside, especially with Wood being out of the line-up now. The Heat are way more reliable in covering the spread on the road than at home, they’re just coming off a 26-point win at New Orleans.
Unless Luka does something crazy and scores 50 points here, I can’t see the Mavs getting much out of tonight’s game. Miami owns the head-to-head meetings, so I think backing them as the slight road underdog is the way to go here.
Dallas Mavericks vs Miami Heat Predictions & Odds
Although the stats from recent head-to-head meetings might be pointing to a low scoring game here, I believe we’re headed towards a high scoring match-up. The Mavericks defense is falling apart right in front of our eyes, Atlanta and Portland have scored 130, 140 and 136 points in the last 3 games against them.
The Heat do prefer a slower pace this season, but when challenged they are more than capable of putting up big numbers on offense. They just put 124 points past a really solid Pelicans team that ranks in the top 10 in defensive efficiency. The total has gone in 5 of 7 Mavs games overall, plus in 6 of their last 7 at home. The last 4 of 6 meetings between these teams have also gone over, so I think backing the points is the smart bet for tonight’s game.